New Zealands economy will run slow over the next few quarters as it negotiates the global economic downturn,lunettes ray ban pas cher, Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said in a briefing paper for the new government and published yesterday,carrera lunettes site officiel.
Mr Bollard said in the paper that the bank saw the economy rediscovering some growth late next year,puma pas cher, but if figures released this week are any guide,ray ban lunettes, the slowdown might have a way to go before the sunny uplands of a rebound can be sighted.
House sales fell in November by 40% and manufacturing output contracted at the fastest rate since 2002 and economists said these and other recent reports suggest the economy is in its deepest slump for at least two decades,chanel pas cher.
But the central bank expects inflationary pressures will dissipate and it will be able to further cut interest rates as those pressures ease.
“The global financial turmoil and the associated fallout for global growth is also having inevitable impacts on the New Zealand economy.
“It is making the process of economic adjustment that was already underway much more complex and difficult.
“The New Zealand economy has contracted over 2008 following a sustained period of growth for most of the decade. Drought conditions slowed growth by lowering production in a number of sectors,chaussures puma.
“Domestic spending has been hit by the sharp increase in oil and food prices until recently,puma, along with the tightening in global credit conditions.
“In addition,sac pas cher, the sharp run-up in house prices and household debt, which had fuelled the expansion and stretched resources, could not be sustained indefinitely,longchamp le pliage.
“Looking forward,chaussures puma, we expect the economy to grow only slowly over the next few quarters before gaining more momentum toward the end of 2009,lunette carrera.
“”Household and business spending is likely to remain subdued for some time, notwithstanding the boost coming from easier fiscal policy and declining oil and food prices. Export growth will be restricted by the weakening in global activity.
“Together these will see inflation pressures dissipate further,longchamp borse, although price trends in some non-tradeable areas remain of concern,chaussures puma ferrari,” Mr Bollard said.
Economists point out that the report was written before last Thursday’s 1,sac chanel.5% cut in the country’s Official Cash Rate to 5%,lunette carrera magasins.
Bollard said New Zealands financial system has faced extreme disorder from the turmoil in international markets, but the nations banks were well placed to weather a weaker domestic economy.
“Collectively,ray ban lunettes, the banks, which represent the bulk of the deposit-taking sector, appear well placed to weather a weaker economy,lunette oakley.
“New Zealands banks,polo ralph lauren, and the Australian parents of the large Australian-owned banks,oakley pas cher, have sufficient capital to withstand an increase in loan losses associated with an economic downturn,carrera lunettes.
“Moreover,lunette oakley, the banks are not directly exposed to many of the negative factors impacting on their global peers.”
He said the central bank has put in place steps to bolster liquidity and is in talks with banks about new standards for future liquidity management, which will encourage them to diversify away from short-term wholesale funding.
New Zealand home sales tumbled in November and the manufacturing industry shrank by the most since at least 2002, suggesting the economy is mired in its deepest recession in 18 years.
Home sales dropped 45.4% in November,puma pas cher, according to figures from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand.
According to the Real Estate group,ray ban pas cher, New Zealand home sales fell to 4,lunette carrera,279 in November,carrera occhiali, close to the 19-year low of 4,2009 Kiwis To Slow Before They Grow,220 recorded in August.
The performance of manufacturing index fell to 35.4 last month from 43,carrera occhiali prezzi.3 in October, the lowest reading since the series began six years ago,oakley lunettes. (That echoed similar readings for Australia, China,oakley pas cher, the US, UK and Europe.) The PMI has been less than 50 since May.
The declines follow figures showing export volumes, retail spending and construction work dropped in the third quarter, indicating New Zealands economic slump has worsened,polo ralph lauren outlet.
Including last week’s big chop,oakley ski, the country has seen the Reserve Bank cut the OCR by 3.25% since July to try to kick-start domestic demand. Our rate cut in Australia is 3% since September,carrera online, but our economy is still growing (perhaps).
Bollard said he expects a 0.3% contraction,carrera lunettes, and some growth in fourth quarter (to March) as the economy embarks on a shallow recovery.
In a Note to clients this week,ray ban clubmaster, analysts at UBS in Australia said they expect the RBNZ to cut the OCR again in January and March next year,2009 Kiwis To Slow Before They Grow, both times by 50%,ray ban pas cher, taking the OCR to an all-time low of 4,longchamp outlet.0%.
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